Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota: Before 2027?
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Tim Walz must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the po
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.2¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.2% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 19.
$10 on YES buys about 190 contracts that pay $190.48 if it happens; $10 on NO at 94.8¢ buys about 10.6 that pay $10.55 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 5.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 59 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 39.6% a year.
$10 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 327 by volume of the 362 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($10) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $54,992,400 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $54,618,534 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $52,926,211 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Tim Walz must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the po
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 59 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $10 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.