Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience
Reading the odds on this market
At 63.7¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 63.7% chance this happens, roughly 1.8 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 16 contracts that pay $15.69 if it happens; $10 on NO at 36.3¢ buys about 27.6 that pay $27.59 if it does not.
$2 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 387 by volume of the 393 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 63¢ means the market is pricing in a 63.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($2) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $54,890,727 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $54,443,226 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $52,922,260 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-04, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 63¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 36¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 63¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 63.7% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $2 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.