How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: <5?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e
Reading the odds on this market
At 60.2¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 60.2% chance this happens, roughly 1.5 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 17 contracts that pay $16.60 if it happens; $10 on NO at 39.8¢ buys about 25.2 that pay $25.16 if it does not.
$224 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 267 by volume of the 396 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 60¢ means the market is pricing in a 60.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($224) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 4¢ | $24,614,193 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $8,830,120 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10¢ | $6,950,146 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 65 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 60¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 40¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 60¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 60.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $224 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.