Will there be more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026: Above 12
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
If more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 2.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 2.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 50.
$10 on YES buys about 500 contracts that pay $500.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 98.0¢ buys about 10.2 that pay $10.20 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 2.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 42 days until December 1, 2026; that works out to about 19.2% a year.
Over the last 29 daily readings the YES price moved down 14.0 points, trading between 1.0¢ and 41.0¢.
$3,265 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $1,397 still riding on the outcome, making it number 177 by volume of the 378 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 2¢ means the market is pricing in a 2.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($3,265) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,397) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 1¢ | $18,624,212 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 7¢ | $6,531,083 |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | 1¢ | $904,926 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-01, 42 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 98¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $3,265 in total traded volume and $1,397 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.