Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
What resolves this contract
Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is scheduled to perform in Russia in October 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West performs live in-person on-stage in front of a live audience in Russia by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The performance must take place at an event that was announced or promoted in advance, and held at a venue such as an arena, stadium, festival ground, concert hall, theater, or club, and is open to an audience by ticket, invitation, or other controlled entry. The resolution source for this market will be a consen
Reading the odds on this market
At 1.4¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 1.4% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 74.
$10 on YES buys about 741 contracts that pay $740.74 if it happens; $10 on NO at 98.7¢ buys about 10.1 that pay $10.14 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 1.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 23 days until November 1, 2026; that works out to about 24.1% a year.
$952,018 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $17,914 still riding on the outcome, making it number 134 by volume of the 224 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($952,018) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($17,914) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $66,423,764 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,460,391 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,305,873 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is scheduled to perform in Russia in October 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West performs live in-person on-stage in front of a live audience in Russia by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The performance must take place at an event that was announced or promoted in advance, and held at a venue such as an arena, stadium, festival ground, concert hall, theater, or club, and is open to an audience by ticket, invitation, or other controlled entry. The resolution source for this market will be a consen
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 23 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $952,018 in total traded volume and $17,914 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.