Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 12?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on 12 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Repor
Reading the odds on this market
At 1.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 1.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 100.
$10 on YES buys about 1,000 contracts that pay $1,000.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 99.0¢ buys about 10.1 that pay $10.10 if it does not.
$48,332 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $3,007 still riding on the outcome, making it number 148 by volume of the 369 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($48,332) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,007) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 46-47° on Nov 12, 2026: 46° to 47° | 1¢ | $38,226 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <59° on Nov 12, 2026: 58° or below | 40¢ | $10,933 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 77-78° on Nov 12, 2026: 77° to 78° | 75¢ | $6,312 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 1¢ | $19,068,152 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 4¢ | $6,537,245 |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | 1¢ | $909,315 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on 12 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Repor
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-12. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $48,332 in total traded volume and $3,007 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.