Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that
Reading the odds on this market
At 72.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 72.5% chance this happens, roughly 2.6 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 14 contracts that pay $13.80 if it happens; $10 on NO at 27.5¢ buys about 36.3 that pay $36.30 if it does not.
$47,128 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $3,734 still riding on the outcome, making it number 146 by volume of the 383 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 72¢ means the market is pricing in a 72.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($47,128) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,734) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Oct 20, 2026: 71° to 72° | 1¢ | $34,724 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Oct 20, 2026: 69° to 70° | 19¢ | $24,683 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <65° on Oct 20, 2026: 64° or below | 1¢ | $20,402 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 1¢ | $18,624,243 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 7¢ | $6,531,099 |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | 1¢ | $904,926 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-20. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 72¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 28¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 72¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 72.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $47,128 in total traded volume and $3,734 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.