EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after August 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as
Reading the odds on this market
At 66.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 66.0% chance this happens, roughly 1.9 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 15 contracts that pay $15.15 if it happens; $10 on NO at 34.0¢ buys about 29.4 that pay $29.41 if it does not.
$9,830 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $26,536 still riding on the outcome, making it number 102 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 66¢ means the market is pricing in a 66.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,830) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($26,536) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $972,345 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $966,831 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 5¢ | $99,671 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after August 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 95 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 66¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 34¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 66¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 66.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,830 in total traded volume and $26,536 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.