Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution
Reading the odds on this market
At 93.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 93.5% chance this happens, roughly 14.4 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $10.70 if it happens; $10 on NO at 6.5¢ buys about 153.8 that pay $153.85 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 7.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 19 days until November 2, 2026; that works out to about 263.7% a year.
$65,377 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $14,787 still riding on the outcome, making it number 151 by volume of the 213 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 93¢ means the market is pricing in a 93.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($65,377) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,787) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 1¢ | $66,490,991 |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,475,122 |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | 1¢ | $2,305,889 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 19 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 93¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 6¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 93¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 93.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $65,377 in total traded volume and $14,787 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.