DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by May 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” wi
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 89¢ means the market is pricing in a 89.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,871) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($22,081) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 94¢ | $9,862,101 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 15¢ | $9,615,134 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 3¢ | $998,345 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by May 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” wi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-15, 22 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 89¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 10¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 89¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 89.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,871 in total traded volume and $22,081 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.