economy

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-10-31 Volume$9,609,711 Open Interest$89,404
YES
94¢
Implied probability: 94.4%
NO
Implied probability: 5.6%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 94¢ · High 94¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
94¢
NO Price
Total Volume
$9,609,711
Open Interest
$89,404
Expiration
2026-10-31
Days Left
191
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary reso

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 94¢ means the market is pricing in a 94.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,609,711) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($89,404) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary reso

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-10-31, 191 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 94¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 6¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 94¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 94.4% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,609,711 in total traded volume and $89,404 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-23. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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