Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher app
Reading the odds on this market
At 65.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 65.0% chance this happens, roughly 1.9 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 15 contracts that pay $15.38 if it happens; $10 on NO at 35.0¢ buys about 28.6 that pay $28.57 if it does not.
$9,684 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $5,716 still riding on the outcome, making it number 145 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 65¢ means the market is pricing in a 65.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,684) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($5,716) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $997,942 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,429 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 56¢ | $97,407 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher app
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-06-30, 276 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 65¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 35¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 65¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 65.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,684 in total traded volume and $5,716 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.