Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear
Reading the odds on this market
At 7.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 7.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 13.
$10 on YES buys about 133 contracts that pay $133.33 if it happens; $10 on NO at 92.5¢ buys about 10.8 that pay $10.81 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 8.1% if it wins, with the money locked up for 6 days until October 4, 2026; that works out to about 11373.9% a year.
$96,692 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $23,593 still riding on the outcome, making it number 35 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,692) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($23,593) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $975,731 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $972,345 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 5¢ | $99,671 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-04, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,692 in total traded volume and $23,593 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.