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Biggest moves · 50 markets

Biggest price moves on Kalshi today

The Kalshi contracts whose implied probability moved the most since the archive started. Sorted by absolute price change. A large mover is a signal that new information - or a liquidity gap - has repriced the market.

Top movers

Biggest price changes across the book

Market Market price Volume Move Dir
Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 7¢ $2 -91.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following 33¢ $5,440 -56.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following 12¢ $9,578 -51.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following 48¢ $4,910 -49.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following 41¢ $3,031 -48.0pp ↓
Will there be more than 9 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 7 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 6 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 4 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 10 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Cent 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Centra 51¢ $0 -47.5pp ↓
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? 5¢ $9,746 -47.1pp ↓
Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr 52¢ $0 -47.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following 20¢ $5,401 -39.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following 35¢ $6,840 -35.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following 28¢ $8,070 -32.0pp ↓
Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat? 94¢ $9,763 +29.8pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following 83¢ $21,213 +29.0pp ↑
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? 15¢ $97,566 -27.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following 53¢ $12,833 -26.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following 78¢ $3,316 -21.0pp ↓
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? 14¢ $9,801 -17.5pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following 61¢ $5,278 -17.0pp ↓
Will above 150000 jobs be added in June 2026: 150,000 32¢ $6,320 +17.0pp ↑
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? 67¢ $9,881 -16.0pp ↓
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? 30¢ $99,050 +13.0pp ↑
Will the high temp in Chicago be 81-82° on Jun 25, 2026: 81° to 82° 24¢ $2,975 +13.0pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following 99¢ $1,682 +13.0pp ↑
Will above 50000 jobs be added in November 2026: 50,000 54¢ $489 -13.0pp ↓
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 79-80° on Jun 25, 2026: 79° to 80° 10¢ $14,679 -11.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following 99¢ $1,535 +10.0pp ↑
Will above 40000 jobs be added in November 2026: 40,000 67¢ $252 +9.0pp ↑
Will the high temp in Chicago be <77° on Jun 25, 2026: 76° or below 2¢ $9,572 -9.0pp ↓
Will the **high temp in LA** be 68-69° on Jun 25, 2026: 68° to 69° 16¢ $7,184 +9.0pp ↑
Will above 90000 jobs be added in November 2026: 90,000 39¢ $317 +8.0pp ↑
Will above 70000 jobs be added in November 2026: 70,000 52¢ $287 +8.0pp ↑
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 81-82° on Jun 25, 2026: 81° to 82° 57¢ $10,475 +8.0pp ↑
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? 17¢ $9,733 -7.1pp ↓
Will above 80000 jobs be added in November 2026: 80,000 46¢ $296 +7.0pp ↑
Will the **high temp in LA** be 72-73° on Jun 25, 2026: 72° to 73° 30¢ $6,886 +7.0pp ↑
Will above 60000 jobs be added in November 2026: 60,000 56¢ $364 +7.0pp ↑
Will above 20000 jobs be added in November 2026: 20,000 75¢ $236 +7.0pp ↑
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? 4¢ $98,045 -6.9pp ↓
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? 95¢ $9,847 +5.2pp ↑
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat? 87¢ $9,984 +5.0pp ↑
Will the **high temp in LA** be 74-75° on Jun 25, 2026: 74° to 75° 1¢ $10,538 -5.0pp ↓
Will above 175000 jobs be added in June 2026: 175,000 14¢ $5,814 +4.0pp ↑
Methodology

How the edge is calculated

Each row on this page is a live Kalshi weather market with a current NOAA ensemble probability from our tracking system. The "edge" column is the raw difference between the model's estimate and the market's implied probability.

A +30pp edge on a YES contract means the NOAA ensemble sees the event as 30 percentage points more likely than the Kalshi market does. That gap could close because: (a) the model is wrong, (b) the market is slow to incorporate the forecast, or (c) the event resolves and the wrong side was pricing it.

This page is not trading advice. Prediction markets price in information the model cannot see (breaking news, insider information, recent weather observations past our scan time). Treat the edge column as a research signal, not a recommendation.

Data sources

  • Market prices: Kalshi public trade API , the implied probability is the midpoint between YES bid and YES ask.
  • NOAA probabilities: Our internal weather model ensemble, blending GFS and ECMWF forecasts for the market's target location and strike.
  • Refresh: Market prices refresh every several hours; NOAA signals refresh as new forecasts are published.
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