economy

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-05-01 Volume$9,709 Open Interest$1,409
YES
25¢
Implied probability: 25.8%
NO
74¢
Implied probability: 74.2%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 25¢ · High 25¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
25¢
NO Price
74¢
Total Volume
$9,709
Open Interest
$1,409
Expiration
2026-05-01
Days Left
6
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, wit

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 25¢ means the market is pricing in a 25.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,709) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,409) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

MarketYESVolume
Will the **high temp in LA** be <62° on Apr 25, 2026: 61° or below $12,067
Will the **high temp in LA** be >69° on Apr 25, 2026: 70° or above $12,023
Will the **high temp in LA** be 64-65° on Apr 25, 2026: 64° to 65° 50¢ $9,938
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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, wit

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-05-01, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 25¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 74¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 25¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 25.8% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,709 in total traded volume and $1,409 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-25. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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