Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specifi
Reading the odds on this market
At 30.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 30.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 33 contracts that pay $32.79 if it happens; $10 on NO at 69.5¢ buys about 14.4 that pay $14.39 if it does not.
$9,862 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $12,047 still riding on the outcome, making it number 90 by volume of the 208 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 30¢ means the market is pricing in a 30.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,862) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,047) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specifi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 93 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 30¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 70¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 30¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 30.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,862 in total traded volume and $12,047 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.