Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 48¢ means the market is pricing in a 48.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,731) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($685) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 9¢ | $963,362 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | 9¢ | $99,869 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 12¢ | $99,446 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 123 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 48¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 52¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 48¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 48.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,731 in total traded volume and $685 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.