world

Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-20 Volume$96,821 Open Interest$97,083
YES
Implied probability: 3.5%
NO
96¢
Implied probability: 96.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 3¢ · High 3¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account → Gemini · Trade $100, get $20 Prediction markets on a regulated US crypto exchange. Gemini is the NYDFS-regulated exchange offering prediction markets alongside spot crypto. New users who trade $100 get $20. Affiliate link; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. Claim the offer →
YES Price
NO Price
96¢
Total Volume
$96,821
Open Interest
$97,083
Expiration
2026-09-20
Days Left
4
About this market

What resolves this contract

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 3.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($96,821) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($97,083) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31? 94¢ $99,941
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? 13¢ $99,595
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? 97¢ $99,354
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-20, 4 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $96,821 in total traded volume and $97,083 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-16. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.