Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. person
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,035) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,820) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 7¢ | $985,933 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 1¢ | $981,954 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | 1¢ | $974,323 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. person
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 16 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,035 in total traded volume and $12,820 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.