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Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-05-31 Volume$95,561 Open Interest$26,184
YES
12¢
Implied probability: 12.5%
NO
87¢
Implied probability: 87.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 12¢ · High 12¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
12¢
NO Price
87¢
Total Volume
$95,561
Open Interest
$26,184
Expiration
2026-05-31
Days Left
24
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to ha

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 12¢ means the market is pricing in a 12.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($95,561) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($26,184) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to ha

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 24 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 12¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 12¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 12.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $95,561 in total traded volume and $26,184 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-07. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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