Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 39¢ means the market is pricing in a 39.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,676) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,638) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 8¢ | $99,847 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 10¢ | $99,162 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $97,388 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 16 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 39¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 61¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 39¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 39.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,676 in total traded volume and $2,638 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.