Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution s
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,996) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,271) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,932,994 |
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,818,724 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,761,110 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution s
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-10, 4 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,996 in total traded volume and $3,271 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.