Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac - specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://
Reading the odds on this market
At 33.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 33.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 30 contracts that pay $29.85 if it happens; $10 on NO at 66.5¢ buys about 15.0 that pay $15.04 if it does not.
$9,719 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $176 still riding on the outcome, making it number 120 by volume of the 218 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 33¢ means the market is pricing in a 33.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,719) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($176) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac - specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-15, 113 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 33¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 66¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 33¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 33.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,719 in total traded volume and $176 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.