Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the da
Reading the odds on this market
At 3.9¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 3.9% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 26.
$10 on YES buys about 260 contracts that pay $259.74 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.2¢ buys about 10.4 that pay $10.40 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 4.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 2 days until September 26, 2026; that works out to about 129246.5% a year.
$9,641 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $1,244 still riding on the outcome, making it number 149 by volume of the 205 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,641) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,244) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >85° on Sep 24, 2026: 86° or above | 1¢ | $64,852 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Sep 24, 2026: 80° to 81° | 31¢ | $24,587 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <78° on Sep 24, 2026: 77° or below | 18¢ | $23,779 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the da
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-26, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.9% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,641 in total traded volume and $1,244 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.