Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calen
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 48¢ means the market is pricing in a 48.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,929) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($41,736) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 6¢ | $9,552,095 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 47¢ | $993,027 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | 38¢ | $975,317 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calen
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2099-12-31, 26885 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 48¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 52¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 48¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 48.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,929 in total traded volume and $41,736 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.