economy

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-06-30 Volume$96,124 Open Interest$29,505
YES
Implied probability: 3.9%
NO
96¢
Implied probability: 96.1%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 3¢ · High 3¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
96¢
Total Volume
$96,124
Open Interest
$29,505
Expiration
2026-06-30
Days Left
72
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorizat

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 3.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($96,124) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($29,505) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorizat

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-06-30, 72 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.9% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $96,124 in total traded volume and $29,505 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-19. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.