Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed ti
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 67¢ means the market is pricing in a 67.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,710) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,188) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| New pandemic in 2026? | 5¢ | $998,834 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 70¢ | $995,512 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $988,709 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed ti
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 145 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 67¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 33¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 67¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 67.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,710 in total traded volume and $3,188 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.