Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep-Oct-Dec)?
What resolves this contract
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the ta
Reading the odds on this market
At 3.1¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 3.1% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 32.
$10 on YES buys about 317 contracts that pay $317.46 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.9¢ buys about 10.3 that pay $10.33 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 3.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 70 days until December 9, 2026; that works out to about 18.2% a year.
$9,873 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $45,858 still riding on the outcome, making it number 97 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,873) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($45,858) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the ta
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-09, 70 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,873 in total traded volume and $45,858 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.