economy

Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-06-11 Volume$9,542 Open Interest$2,098
YES
44¢
Implied probability: 44.5%
NO
55¢
Implied probability: 55.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 44¢ · High 44¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
44¢
NO Price
55¢
Total Volume
$9,542
Open Interest
$2,098
Expiration
2026-06-11
Days Left
45
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this marke

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 44¢ means the market is pricing in a 44.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,542) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,098) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this marke

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-06-11, 45 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 44¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 55¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 44¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 44.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,542 in total traded volume and $2,098 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-27. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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