Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may res
Reading the odds on this market
At 33.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 33.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 30 contracts that pay $29.85 if it happens; $10 on NO at 66.5¢ buys about 15.0 that pay $15.04 if it does not.
$9,811 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $4,736 still riding on the outcome, making it number 88 by volume of the 206 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 33¢ means the market is pricing in a 33.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,811) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,736) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may res
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-09, 76 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 33¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 66¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 33¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 33.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,811 in total traded volume and $4,736 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.