economy

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-04-28 Volume$96,381 Open Interest$13,416
YES
95¢
Implied probability: 95.0%
NO
Implied probability: 5.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 95¢ · High 95¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
95¢
NO Price
Total Volume
$96,381
Open Interest
$13,416
Expiration
2026-04-28
Days Left
1
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no st

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 95¢ means the market is pricing in a 95.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($96,381) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,416) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no st

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-04-28, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 95¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 5¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 95¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 95.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $96,381 in total traded volume and $13,416 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-27. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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