Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
What resolves this contract
The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides a
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 16¢ means the market is pricing in a 16.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,729) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($325) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $993,662 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 5¢ | $982,471 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $980,646 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides a
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2099-12-31, 26768 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 16¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 83¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 16¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 16.8% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,729 in total traded volume and $325 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.