Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifi
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 8¢ means the market is pricing in a 8.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,805) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,333) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 7 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 8¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 8¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 8.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,805 in total traded volume and $3,333 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.