Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The s
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 88¢ means the market is pricing in a 88.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,615) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,022) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,994,920 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 13¢ | $9,800,050 |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,694,567 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The s
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 235 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 88¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 12¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 88¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 88.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,615 in total traded volume and $3,022 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.