economy

Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-30 Volume$9,676 Open Interest$1,068
YES
28¢
Implied probability: 29.0%
NO
71¢
Implied probability: 71.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 28¢ · High 28¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
28¢
NO Price
71¢
Total Volume
$9,676
Open Interest
$1,068
Expiration
2026-09-30
Days Left
11
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 28¢ means the market is pricing in a 29.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,676) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,068) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 11 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 28¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 71¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 28¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 29.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,676 in total traded volume and $1,068 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-19. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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