Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 27¢ means the market is pricing in a 27.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,669) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($9,514) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 105 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 27¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 72¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 27¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 27.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,669 in total traded volume and $9,514 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.