crypto

Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-01-01 Volume$9,767 Open Interest$7,359
YES
Implied probability: 7.5%
NO
92¢
Implied probability: 92.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 7¢ · High 7¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
92¢
Total Volume
$9,767
Open Interest
$7,359
Expiration
2027-01-01
Days Left
99
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a

Reading the odds on this market

At 7.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 7.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 13.

$10 on YES buys about 133 contracts that pay $133.33 if it happens; $10 on NO at 92.5¢ buys about 10.8 that pay $10.81 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 8.1% if it wins, with the money locked up for 99 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 33.3% a year.

$9,767 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $7,359 still riding on the outcome, making it number 100 by volume of the 203 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 7.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,767) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($7,359) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 99 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,767 in total traded volume and $7,359 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-24. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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