Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Polo (NHC designation EP172026) made landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Polo makes landfall more than once, any one qualifying landfall resolves this market to "Yes". A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Hurricane Polo, that the cente
Reading the odds on this market
At 95.4¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 95.4% chance this happens, roughly 20.7 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.48 if it happens; $10 on NO at 4.6¢ buys about 217.4 that pay $217.39 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 4.8% if it wins, with the money locked up for 10 days until October 7, 2026; that works out to about 457.8% a year.
$9,769 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $384 still riding on the outcome, making it number 117 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 95¢ means the market is pricing in a 95.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,769) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($384) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >83° on Sep 27, 2026: 84° or above | 99¢ | $101,595 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Sep 27, 2026: 82° to 83° | 1¢ | $37,069 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Sep 27, 2026: 80° to 81° | 1¢ | $32,451 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Polo (NHC designation EP172026) made landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Polo makes landfall more than once, any one qualifying landfall resolves this market to "Yes". A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Hurricane Polo, that the cente
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-07, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 95¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 5¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 95¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 95.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,769 in total traded volume and $384 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.