Will "Patient Zero" hit 70m first week streams?
What resolves this contract
"Patient Zero" (Taylor Swift) releases September 25, 2026 as part of "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore." This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Patient Zero"'s cumulative global Spotify streams from its release date (September 25, 2026) through the end of its first week (October 1, 2026) are greater than or equal to the specified amount, as displayed at 12:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify's official charts. If this resolution source is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. Billboard
Reading the odds on this market
At 1.4¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 1.4% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 74.
$10 on YES buys about 741 contracts that pay $740.74 if it happens; $10 on NO at 98.7¢ buys about 10.1 that pay $10.14 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 1.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 5 days until October 2, 2026; that works out to about 169.7% a year.
$9,691 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $1,511 still riding on the outcome, making it number 142 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,691) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,511) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m? | 1¢ | $97,456 |
| Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? | 4¢ | $9,953 |
| Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? | 8¢ | $9,818 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
"Patient Zero" (Taylor Swift) releases September 25, 2026 as part of "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore." This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Patient Zero"'s cumulative global Spotify streams from its release date (September 25, 2026) through the end of its first week (October 1, 2026) are greater than or equal to the specified amount, as displayed at 12:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify's official charts. If this resolution source is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g. Billboard
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-02, 5 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,691 in total traded volume and $1,511 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.