economy

Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-04-30 Volume$9,844 Open Interest$1,018
YES
Implied probability: 4.3%
NO
95¢
Implied probability: 95.7%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 4¢ · High 6¢ · Δ -1.7pp
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YES Price
NO Price
95¢
Total Volume
$9,844
Open Interest
$1,018
Expiration
2026-04-30
Days Left
10
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link o

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 4.3% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,844) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,018) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

MarketYESVolume
Will the S&P 500 be between 7250 and 7274.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,250 12¢ $1,165
Will the S&P 500 be between 7275 and 7299.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,275 $748
Will the S&P 500 be between 7325 and 7349.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,325 $299
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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link o

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-04-30, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.3% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,844 in total traded volume and $1,018 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-20. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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