Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Reading the odds on this market
At 44.7¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 44.7% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 2.
$10 on YES buys about 22 contracts that pay $22.37 if it happens; $10 on NO at 55.3¢ buys about 18.1 that pay $18.08 if it does not.
$3,530,307 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $96,024 still riding on the outcome, making it number 72 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 44¢ means the market is pricing in a 44.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($3,530,307) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($96,024) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 1¢ | $26,466,275 |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $6,911,498 |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $6,354,909 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 88 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 44¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 55¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 44¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 44.7% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $3,530,307 in total traded volume and $96,024 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.