Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 12¢ means the market is pricing in a 12.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,167) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($350) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 15¢ | $9,669,378 |
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,575,675 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 7¢ | $980,919 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-31, 186 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 12¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 12¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 12.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,167 in total traded volume and $350 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.