economy

Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-30 Volume$9,526 Open Interest$3,051
YES
80¢
Implied probability: 80.0%
NO
20¢
Implied probability: 20.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 80¢ · High 80¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
80¢
NO Price
20¢
Total Volume
$9,526
Open Interest
$3,051
Expiration
2026-09-30
Days Left
52
About this market

What resolves this contract

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve according to the final value displayed on the in-game death counter on Kai Cenat's officia

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 80¢ means the market is pricing in a 80.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,526) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,051) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve according to the final value displayed on the in-game death counter on Kai Cenat's officia

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 52 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 80¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 20¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 80¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 80.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,526 in total traded volume and $3,051 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-09. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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