Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 75¢ means the market is pricing in a 75.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,558) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,378) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 13¢ | $9,657,199 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 3¢ | $996,456 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | 1¢ | $978,334 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-30, 65 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 75¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 25¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 75¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 75.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,558 in total traded volume and $4,378 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.