Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
What resolves this contract
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other"
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 51¢ means the market is pricing in a 51.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,948) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($149) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 15¢ | $9,603,037 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 9¢ | $991,511 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other | 1¢ | $988,314 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other"
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-30, 99 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 51¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 48¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 51¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 51.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,948 in total traded volume and $149 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.