Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,”
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 17¢ means the market is pricing in a 17.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,333) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($5,736) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 7¢ | $985,960 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | 1¢ | $984,459 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 1¢ | $981,993 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,”
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-17, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 17¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 83¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 17¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 17.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,333 in total traded volume and $5,736 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.