Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.tx
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 11¢ means the market is pricing in a 11.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,611) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($10,621) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,965,250 |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,788,687 |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,748,778 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.tx
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-10, 28 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 11¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 89¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 11¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 11.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,611 in total traded volume and $10,621 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.