Will Elon tweet 760-799 times in September 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X during the month of September 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,921) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,160) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $993,645 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 5¢ | $982,471 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 1¢ | $977,783 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X during the month of September 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 15 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 87¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,921 in total traded volume and $3,160 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.