economy

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on September 30?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-09-30 Volume$9,636 Open Interest$347
YES
6¢
Implied probability: 6.5%
NO
93¢
Implied probability: 93.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 6¢ · High 6¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
6¢
NO Price
93¢
Total Volume
$9,636
Open Interest
$347
Expiration
2026-09-30
Days Left
6
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Reading the odds on this market

At 6.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 6.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 15.

$10 on YES buys about 154 contracts that pay $153.85 if it happens; $10 on NO at 93.5¢ buys about 10.7 that pay $10.70 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 7.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 6 days until September 30, 2026; that works out to about 5865.2% a year.

$9,636 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $347 still riding on the outcome, making it number 154 by volume of the 218 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 6¢ means the market is pricing in a 6.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,636) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($347) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

MarketYESVolume
Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7624.9999 on Sep 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,600 8¢ $2,897
Will the S&P 500 be between 7700 and 7724.9999 on Sep 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,700 23¢ $115
Will the S&P 500 be between 7950 and 7974.9999 on Sep 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,950 3¢ $66
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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 6¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 6¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 6.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,636 in total traded volume and $347 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-24. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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