Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?
What resolves this contract
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 20.
$10 on YES buys about 202 contracts that pay $202.02 if it happens; $10 on NO at 95.0¢ buys about 10.5 that pay $10.52 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 5.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 99 days until January 2, 2027; that works out to about 20.6% a year.
$9,630 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $528 still riding on the outcome, making it number 150 by volume of the 206 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,630) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($528) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | 1¢ | $9,961 |
| Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? | 8¢ | $9,818 |
| Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026? | 2¢ | $9,777 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 99 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,630 in total traded volume and $528 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.